The latest Cavalcade of Risk is up at Jason Shafrin's Healthcare Economist. As usual, the contributing writer-bloggers have done an outstanding job of examining the latest thinking surrounding the art and science of business and insurance risk.
Jason has an additional insight to share:
According to FindMyMarathon.com, in 2015, there were 658 marathons in the U.S. and Canada. Thus, the probability of a bombing of a randomly selected marathon in the U.S. or Canada is about 0.2% if one assumes one bombing per year.
The Chicago Tribune reports that 100 people were injured and 3 people died. In 2015, 528,375 individuals finished a marathon. Thus, the probability of being injured at a marathon due to a bombing is 0.02% and the probability of being killed is 0.0006% or fewer than 1 in every 150,000 individuals.
About 1 in 100,000 marathon finishers die during or in the 24 hours immediately after a marathon, according to The New York Times. Thus, marathoners are at higher risk of dying of a heart attack after a marathon than from a terrorist attack.