Saturday, April 18, 2015

The Latest Cavalcade of Risk Is Up!

The latest Cavalcade of Risk is up at Jason Shafrin's Healthcare Economist.  As usual, the contributing writer-bloggers have done an outstanding job of examining the latest thinking surrounding the art and science of business and insurance risk.

Jason has an additional insight to share:

According to FindMyMarathon.com, in 2015, there were 658 marathons in the U.S. and Canada.  Thus, the probability of a bombing of a randomly selected marathon in the U.S. or Canada is about 0.2% if one assumes one bombing per year.

The Chicago Tribune reports that 100 people were injured and 3 people died.  In 2015, 528,375 individuals finished a marathon.  Thus, the probability of being injured at a marathon due to a bombing is 0.02% and the probability of being killed is 0.0006% or fewer than 1 in every 150,000 individuals.

About 1 in 100,000 marathon finishers die during or in the 24 hours immediately after a marathon, according to The New York Times.  Thus, marathoners are at higher risk of dying of a heart attack after a marathon than from a terrorist attack. 

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